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SubjectRe: doesn't matter Reply to this message
Posted bywildcat
Posted on01/04/05 01:42 AM

> > Statistically, no, since each event (trip) is independent. The odds of getting
> > into an accident on any given trip are the same whether it's the first one or
> > the 100,000th one (inexperience and old age notwithstanding (withstanding, you
> > get a bathtub curve)). It's like flipping a coin: it's very unlikely that 157
> > coins spun consecutively will come down heads 157 consecutive times (unless your
> > name is Rosencrantz), but the odds for each individual coin toss are still
> > 50/50.
> So since it's unlikely that you'll flip heads 157 times in a row, and you're
> more likely to hit a tails, what is that?

No. -nt- The two statements are not mutually exclusive. 157 heads in a row is exteremely unlikely, but you still have a 50/50 shot of getting 158. Previous spins have no effect on current spins. Yes, it does seem contradictory, but it isn't. Maybe it'd be more clear if I used the true odds of getting into an accident (placed arbitrarily at, say, one in ten million for each trip). At those odds, you stand a pretty good chance of racking up 25+ years of driving without an accident.

> > Also, driving isn't a pure game of random chance. Driver skill, state of mind,
> > chemical level, etc. all come into play, all of which have a profound effect on
> > the odds.
> I'm no traffic expert, and I'm sure most accidents are typical fender benders,
> but there's no way you can account for every person and situation on the road.
> Nor could you avoid every one, regardless of your skill and state of mind. The
> chance is there every single time you enter the car that some crazed maniac
> running from the cops is going to run over you in a garbage truck.

I never said the odds drop to zero. What I'm talking about is the avoidable stuff. That's why I said "not a pure game of random chance." The unavoidable stuff is random, but the avoidable stuff is not. IMNSHO, the truly unavoidable stuff is relatively rare anyway.

Entire Thread
Subject  Posted byPosted On
*Anyone rent from Blockbuster?  Eon_Blue01/03/05 07:29 PM
.*How is that different from car insurance  itchyNADZ01/03/05 10:22 PM
..*Anyone can get in an accident  ChachiSqrPants01/04/05 00:26 AM
...*I don't get in accidents  itchyNADZ01/04/05 00:30 AM
....*doesn't matter  ChachiSqrPants01/04/05 00:48 AM
.....*Re: doesn't matter  wildcat01/04/05 01:04 AM
......*Re: doesn't matter  ChachiSqrPants01/04/05 01:08 AM
........Re: doesn't matter  wildcat01/04/05 01:42 AM
........*Re: doesn't matter  ChachiSqrPants01/04/05 09:06 AM
.........*THERE ARE FOUR LIGHTS *nt*  wildcat01/04/05 10:12 PM
....*Uh-huh *nt*  wildcat01/04/05 00:41 AM
..*Re: How is that different from car insurance  wildcat01/03/05 11:21 PM
.*No, too expensive  Halcyon01/03/05 09:23 PM
.*With the likes of Netflix and such, all such places will soon die nt UNF  Evildrak01/03/05 08:23 PM
.*Re: Anyone rent from Blockbuster?  Pinto Bravo01/03/05 08:07 PM