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First and foremost, the automated update tool built into xp will continue to work regardless (according to a few sources) so the critical updates will still get patched.
However, other MS "Extras" like the Anti-Spyware Tool (Ad-Aware/Spybot), Internet Explorer (Firefox), Media Player (Media Player Classic), etc... won't get updates. So, imho, its no big concern. MS would be stupid to only patch "registered" copies with security updates being that 1.) It would make no sense for corporate users with hundreds (thousands) of licenses to each have to access the website 2.) the unpatched copies would just spread whatever virus/exploit to the registered ones regardless and 3.) Its going to be cracked fast ;) I mean look at the boogieman that was WinXP activation....
But MS has the $$$ to waste so let them waste it. Guaranteed its crackable just like if you used an key that was not supported by SP1 you could just change your key and continue on, business as usual.
_ _ - - = = Pr3tty F1y = = - - _ _
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